Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election emerges as three-way federal battleground

The Aug. 31 by-election in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is expected to be the most closely contested of three federal races called by Prime Minister Mark Carney, with the Conservatives seeking to defend a seat that was nearly divided three ways in the last general election.

The riding became vacant after Conservative MP Richard Martel resigned to accept an appointment to the Senate. Martel had represented Chicoutimi—Le Fjord since capturing it from the Liberals in a 2018 by-election. His 2025 re-election, however, was anything but comfortable.

Martel received 17,356 votes, or 34.1 per cent. Bloc Québécois candidate Marc St-Hilaire finished with 15,857 votes and 31.2 per cent, while Liberal Stéphane Proulx received 15,820 votes and 31.1 per cent.. Only 1,536 votes separated the Conservative winner from the third-place Liberal candidate. The Bloc finished just 37 votes ahead of the Liberals.

Those results give all three parties a plausible path to victory, particularly in a by-election where turnout and candidate organization can matter as much as national polling.

The Liberals have nominated Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and agricultural advocate with longstanding connections to the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region. Gobeil holds a bachelor’s degree in agronomy and has served as chair of both Les Producteurs de lait du Québec and the regional dairy producers’ organization.

He operates Ferme du Fjord in La Baie, a family farm originally purchased by his grandfather and now worked by three generations. The Liberal Party is presenting Gobeil as a candidate who can advocate for farmers, regional investment, workers and small businesses.

The Bloc Québécois has selected Caroline Dubé. Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet described her as a locally rooted candidate with experience working alongside elected officials and residents. Dubé previously served as an office director for a regional politician and ran for the Parti Québécois in the 2022 provincial election.

The Conservatives will be seeking to preserve the foothold Martel established in a riding with a highly fluid electoral history. Over the past two decades, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord has elected representatives from the Bloc Québécois, New Democratic Party, Liberal Party and Conservative Party.

The constituency covers approximately 3,591 square kilometres and had a population of 110,212 in the 2021 census. Its roughly 75,200 electors are spread across part of Saguenay and the municipalities of Saint-Honoré, Saint-David-de-Falardeau and Saint-Fulgence.

The riding’s geography and economy create a different campaign environment from the Toronto and Vancouver-area districts voting on the same day. Agriculture, regional economic development, industrial employment, transportation and access to federal programs are likely to compete with broader national questions about affordability and the Carney government’s record.

The contest will also test the political balance in Quebec.

For the Conservatives, retaining the seat would demonstrate that the party can remain competitive outside its strongest western and suburban bases. A Bloc victory would expand the party’s presence in the Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean region and show that it can convert a close second-place finish into a seat. A Liberal victory would represent a significant gain for the governing party and restore a district it held before Martel’s 2018 breakthrough.

The timing has drawn criticism from Blanchet, who argued that an Aug. 31 vote overlaps with the summer vacation period, the beginning of the school year and preparations for Quebec’s provincial election.

Advance polls will run from Aug. 21 to Aug. 24. Election-day polls in Chicoutimi—Le Fjord will be open from 9:30 a.m. until 9:30 p.m. Eastern time.