North Vancouver—Capilano by-election sets up contest between PMO veteran and returning Conservative

Voters in North Vancouver—Capilano will choose a new member of Parliament on Aug. 31 after former Liberal cabinet minister Jonathan Wilkinson resigned to become Canada’s ambassador to the European Union.

Wilkinson had represented the North Shore constituency since defeating Conservative MP Andrew Saxton in the 2015 federal election. He subsequently held several senior cabinet portfolios before leaving Parliament for the diplomatic appointment.

The Liberals will seek to retain the seat with Braeden Caley, a public-policy strategist who most recently served as Prime Minister Mark Carney’s deputy chief of staff.

The Liberal Party says Caley has spent more than two decades working in government and public policy. He began his career in the constituency offices of British Columbia MPs, later advised leaders at Vancouver City Hall and in Ottawa, and headed an independent progressive think tank before joining the Prime Minister’s Office.

The Conservatives are fielding Stephen Curran, the party’s candidate in the riding during the 2025 election. Curran, a lawyer, received 21,339 votes and 33.7 per cent in that contest. Wilkinson won with 37,907 votes, or 59.8 per cent, producing a Liberal margin of 16,568 votes.

The previous result makes the Liberals the early favourite, but the absence of an incumbent could create an opening for a more competitive race.

Wilkinson benefited from a decade of visibility as both a local MP and cabinet minister. Caley brings senior government experience but must establish his own relationship with voters while defending the government’s record. Curran enters the campaign with the advantage of having recently contested the riding and already built a local campaign organization.

North Vancouver—Capilano contains the City of North Vancouver, portions of the District of North Vancouver and West Vancouver, Metro Vancouver Electoral Area A and the Capilano reserve. It covers 311 square kilometres and had a 2021 census population of 116,055. Almost 89,000 electors were registered during the previous federal election.

Housing, transportation and affordability are expected to be prominent issues in a constituency experiencing population growth and significant pressure on local infrastructure.

Caley has said his priorities include housing construction, North Shore infrastructure, economic sustainability and reducing household costs. The Conservative campaign has highlighted affordability, housing and mortgage costs, taxation, grocery prices, crime and public safety among the issues it wants residents to consider. Those themes indicate that both leading campaigns will focus heavily on the cost and quality of life in the riding, even as they propose different federal approaches.

The campaign will also offer a test of the Liberals’ broader strength in suburban British Columbia. The party won several Lower Mainland seats decisively in 2025, but Conservatives continue to view the region as essential to expanding their national coalition.

A substantially closer result would provide the Conservatives with evidence that they are gaining ground among urban and suburban B.C. voters, even without winning the seat. A Liberal victory near Wilkinson’s previous margin would suggest that the party’s local support can survive the departure of a high-profile incumbent.

Smaller parties may also influence the size of the Liberal and Conservative vote shares. In 2025, the NDP received 4.2 per cent, the Greens received 1.7 per cent and the People’s Party received 0.4 per cent.

Advance voting will take place from Aug. 21 through Aug. 24. On Aug. 31, polls in North Vancouver—Capilano will be open from 7 a.m. until 7 p.m. Pacific time.