Why Alberta Separatism Fails

Soon, Albertans will vote on whether a binding referendum on separatism is necessary. That vote will fail. The cyclical rise and fall of separatist movements in Alberta is decades old, and those who remember experience varying degrees of fatigue or frustration.

Maple Leaf Forever

All nations require stories, founding myths, historic leaders, and martyrs that explain why ruling elites keep and wield power. This narrative uses the past to justify the present and hope for the future. The future can be either a place of peace and prosperity or a unified front against the nation’s collective external enemies, depending on the form of government.

Canada’s story weaves a tapestry of past and future prosperity through social democracy and anti-Americanism. Perhaps a myth, but when enough people believe it, it becomes effectively true. A country, a society, exists because its people share common values, a shared sense of the past and a collective belief in future success. Even in this age of anger and disruption, the idea of Canada still gives most people a warm and fuzzy feeling.

Alberta separatists struggle with Canada’s mythic power, never able to articulate an Alberta narrative strong enough to sway the hearts and minds of their fellow citizens. When pushed hard enough, Canada pushes back.

Stop Shouting, Start Listening

People don’t trust the separatists to lead a government. After all, that’s what’s at stake. The independence movement aims to create a new country and write a new constitution to govern all Alberta citizens. Some people view the movement as an angry minority pursuing a right-wing project. It's been years, and nothing has been done to counter this accusation. Simply pointing out that Alberta sends more money to Ottawa than it gets back isn’t enough to counter Canada's social-democratic narrative. Many Canadians take pride in contributing to the social welfare system to help the less fortunate and don't trust the purported numbers. 

Campaigning to join the United States hurts the independence movement. As previously mentioned, Canada was founded on anti-Americanism, long before Elbows Up and long before Sir John A. Macdonald. Bragging about meeting White House officials and potentially bargaining away oil and water in exchange for foreign financial support is a mind-bogglingly stupid way to sway undecided voters right before a once-in-a-lifetime referendum.

This suggests a fundamental misunderstanding of the independence campaign. It’s a sure way to ensure a historic loss.

The Merch is the Message

In Quebec, separatism is a permanent institution with another referendum always one election cycle away from being reality. The Parti Québécois is patient without constant demands for instant gratification. Quebecers have entrusted avowed separatists with government power multiple times, in a way Albertans never have.

Anecdotal evidence that separatists infiltrated the UCP at the local board level to agitate for independence from within makes sense, if true. A third-party movement can put up billboards and sell swag online, but it can't influence the legislative agenda or dictate to the Premier what she must do. The movement needs a single permanent political party, and that takes time, consistent effort, and the willingness to accept and adapt to election losses. Voters' negative judgment contains lessons for future wins, if one is willing to listen.

Separatists are only one faction in the UCP’s broad coalition of conservative interests. As a party dedicated to power through winning elections, the UCP cannot continue to tolerate the separatists constantly taking kamikaze runs at the leadership and executive board. This need for gratification and short-term action proves that separatists cannot be trusted with power and doom the movement to marginalization and failure. Politics is not a slot machine where you keep pulling the handle hoping for a magic result; it's a slow, methodical effort of continual communication, feedback, and adaptation. Election and referendum campaigns are about competing narratives and convincing voters that yours is superior. Yelling at people because they are wrong does not create trust or grant consent to govern.

The trouble with the independence movement isn't the hard-working men and women who believe in it; it's shameless leadership radiating nihilist rage or raking in cash. The salesmen hawking ball caps and T-shirts are the only winners here.

Anger Motivates, Hope Inspires

Anyone wishing to separate Alberta from Canada needs to understand and embrace this fact: overthrowing the Constitution of Canada is nothing short of a revolution. This is a thermonuclear level of cost and risk you are asking your fellow citizens to accept. If you are not ready to operate on this level, then you are not ready to be a true separatist. If this thought makes you angry, ask yourself why.

Why would anyone vote to change their flag and constitution, risking the value of their homes and their families' future on nothing but promises and grievances? Most people fear this level of disruptive change without a compelling narrative for revolution, one the independence movement simply isn't articulating.

If you're a federalist and this article upsets you, again, ask yourself why. Sweeping this under the rug, refusing to have a conversation about separatism, is a giant reason why this referendum is happening in the first place. Refusing to listen is the common denominator.

The Aftermath

Historically, the next step for the independence movement is rubble in the form of multiple factions. Some separatists will stay with the governing UCP, believing Danielle Smith is the best available option. Some will join the two separatist parties in Alberta, which are willing to take in new members, and some will create a new party, diluting their votes even further. No separatist MLA will ever be elected in Alberta under this fractured scenario, and anger and finger-pointing will crescendo when that realization sinks in. Life will go on.

But if you love Canada, do not become complacent. Engage with your Alberta neighbours and be aware of their concerns. Alberta is the land of second chances, and nothing is ever truly over.