Debate Snooze Means Surrey Rules

About a week ago, the forgettable BC Leader’s Debate happened. The hours-long nothing-burger broadcast produced no knockout-outs and barely a pulse-raising moment as all the leaders present stuck to their scripts and managed not to implode. Lorne Doerksen did a workmanlike job, bored with the whole thing, but boring is better than crazy-dangerous. David Eby seemed lost at times, unable to respond to some predictable criticisms, and the election narrative slipped further away. Green Leader Emily Lowen came off best, sniping at the NDP record, offering a left-wing alternative, and painting the Conservatives as out of touch. 

The debate did not move the polling needle as this election about nothing concludes. The Conservatives currently have a slender, uncertain chance at a majority government. 

Civic West has the numbers:

CPBC 33%

NDP 31%

Greens 9%

OneBC 4%

CentreBC 5%

Other 2%

Undecided 16%

The riding breakdown has the Conservatives marginally ahead in projected seat count, with many local races as statistical ties. This one is going down to the wire, decided by whoever can muster the best ground game.

CentreBC’s vote is spread evenly and draws from both NDP and Conservatives. Playing the middle game can lead to big wins in the First-Past-The-Post voting system because voters often see centrists as their first or second choice. The trouble is, if the vanilla party doesn't hit the critical mass needed to translate into FPTP wins, it bleeds votes to both margins and gets wiped out. This is because second place in FPTP is not worth a set of steak knives, although in BC the per-vote subsidy and spending refunds can still be pretty sweet.

OneBC, running mainly in safe conservative areas, does not appear to have much of an impact. It would be an interesting experiment to watch the results if OneBC had candidates in every riding, but in the current scenario, FPTP will not be kind to Dallas Brodie and her team.

The ten Surrey ridings will be decisive, with five in dead heats and the Conservatives slightly ahead in the others. If you're a registered Surrey voter, expect repeated contact from party volunteers until your vote is locked in. Get out and vote, you know you want to … all the cool kids are doing it.

Is David Eby’s career over? Will Lorne Doerksen accidentally be Premier? Can the Green Party hold the balance of power?

Be sure to tune in next week for the next exciting episode of “Rando BC Politics"!