Milobar Strongest Performer Against NDP, New Mainstreet Poll Shows

A new poll by Mainstreet Research suggests that Peter Milobar, MLA for Kamloops-Centre, is the BC Conservative leadership candidate most capable of defeating Premier David Eby's NDP — and the only one currently projected to win a majority government.

The survey, conducted between March 11 and 13 with 1,054 British Columbia residents, tested each leadership candidate's head-to-head matchup against the governing BC NDP.

Milobar the Only Candidate to Project a Majority

Under a Milobar-led Conservative Party, the poll found:

• 37.7% support for the Conservatives vs. 33.0% for the NDP among all voters surveyed
• Among decided voters, the Conservative lead widens to 43.8% vs. 38.3% for the NDP
• Mainstreet's seat projection model translates that result into a 53-seat Conservative majority in BC's 93-seat legislature, with the NDP reduced to 38 seats and the BC Greens holding two

By contrast, other leading candidates — including Caroline Elliott, Iain Black, and Kerry-Lynne Findlay — were each projected to win approximately 46 seats, barely enough for a minority government, with the NDP close behind at 45 seats.

A Narrowing Field

The poll comes as the leadership race is beginning to tighten. Abbotsford South MLA Bruce Banman announced Sunday that he is suspending his campaign and throwing his support behind entrepreneur Yuri Fulmer.

"I'm incredibly grateful to receive the endorsement of MLA Bruce Banman," Fulmer wrote on social media.

Political observers are also watching Langley-Abbotsford MLA Harman Bhangu closely, with speculation mounting that he may soon suspend his own campaign. Sources suggest he could endorse Elliott, though no official announcement has been made.

The remaining candidates in the race are Milobar, Elliott, Findlay, Black, Fulmer, and former grocery executive Darrell Jones. The party is expected to hold its leadership vote in May.

The race was triggered after former BC Conservative leader John Rustad stepped down in 2025. Trevor Halford is currently serving as interim leader.

Top Voter Concerns

The Mainstreet poll also asked respondents about their most pressing issues. Cost of living ranked highest at 27%, followed by health care at just over 20%.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, 19 times out of 20.